SPY · SPX · 0DTE EXPECTED MOVE

Monday, October 5, 2026

Bands are set at the 9:30 ET open and stay fixed for the day. Only price updates.

SETUP (premarket zone)

MID

INDECISION — MEAN REVERSION

PM mid · favors mean reversion

PM open $768.66 = 26% of EM range (MID) · RTH open $769.68 = 44% of EM range (MID)

SPY (last bar 12:00 ET)

$773.30

Mid 770.00

Position in EM range

109%

ABOVE EM

Upper EM

772.82

75% zone 771.41

Lower EM

767.18

25% zone 768.59

Zone touches

#	Time (ET)	Zone	Zone line	Bar high	Bar low
1	10:05	UPPER	$771.41	$771.82	$770.92

Counted from the 9:30 open until the 11:00 ET entry cutoff (touches after it are not shown): a touch = a bar reaches the 75% / 25% zone line. After the first, a new touch counts only when price reaches the opposite zone (same rule as the hub's Round Trip Dashboard).

Snapshots

Time (ET)	Price	To upper EM	To lower EM	In range	Zone
12:00 (latest)	$773.30	-0.48	+6.12	109%	ABOVE EM
11:00	$772.75	+0.07	+5.57	99%	UPPER
10:00	$770.92	+1.90	+3.74	66%	MID
09:30	$770.80	+2.02	+3.62	64%	MID

SPX (last bar 12:00 ET)

7,763.24

Mid 7,730.09

Position in EM range

109%

ABOVE EM

Upper EM

7,758.40

75% zone 7,744.24

Lower EM

7,701.78

25% zone 7,715.93

SPX line = SPY × 10.0391, the same ratio used for the SPX levels.

Zone touches

#	Time (ET)	Zone	Zone line	Bar high	Bar low
1	10:05	UPPER	7,744.24	7,748.38	7,739.34

Snapshots

Time (ET)	Price	To upper EM	To lower EM	In range	Zone
12:00 (latest)	7,763.24	-4.84	+61.46	109%	ABOVE EM
11:00	7,757.71	+0.69	+55.93	99%	UPPER
10:00	7,739.34	+19.06	+37.56	66%	MID
09:30	7,738.14	+20.26	+36.36	64%	MID

To upper EM = upper EM minus price (negative = trading above the band). To lower EM = price minus lower EM. Price = 5-minute bar close; time = bar start. H / L on the chart = RTH high / low. Grey dash-dot lines = EM range extended by 25% beyond each EM line. Shaded blue band = each bar's low-to-high range.

Data may be delayed - newest SPY bar is 12:00 ET.