SPY · SPX · 0DTE EXPECTED MOVE

Monday, October 12, 2026

Bands are set at the 9:30 ET open and stay fixed for the day. Only price updates.

SETUP (premarket zone)

MID

INDECISION — MEAN REVERSION

PM mid · favors mean reversion

PM open $780.01 = 73% of EM range (MID) · RTH open $778.78 = 45% of EM range (MID)

SPY (last bar 15:55 ET)

$778.03

Mid 779.00

Position in EM range

28%

MID

Upper EM

781.17

75% zone 780.09

Lower EM

776.83

25% zone 777.91

Zone touches

#	Time (ET)	Zone	Zone line	Bar high	Bar low
1	10:05	LOWER	$777.91	$778.57	$777.74

Counted from the 9:30 open until the 11:00 ET entry cutoff (touches after it are not shown): a touch = a bar reaches the 75% / 25% zone line. After the first, a new touch counts only when price reaches the opposite zone (same rule as the hub's Round Trip Dashboard).

Snapshots

Time (ET)	Price	To upper EM	To lower EM	In range	Zone
15:55 (latest)	$778.03	+3.14	+1.20	28%	MID
15:00	$777.30	+3.87	+0.47	11%	LOWER
14:00	$777.60	+3.57	+0.77	18%	LOWER
13:00	$777.72	+3.45	+0.89	21%	LOWER
12:00	$779.00	+2.17	+2.17	50%	MID
11:00	$778.32	+2.85	+1.49	34%	MID
10:00	$778.43	+2.74	+1.60	37%	MID
09:30	$778.83	+2.34	+2.00	46%	MID

SPX (last bar 15:55 ET)

7,807.76

Mid 7,817.47

Position in EM range

28%

MID

Upper EM

7,839.24

75% zone 7,828.35

Lower EM

7,795.69

25% zone 7,806.58

SPX line = SPY × 10.0353, the same ratio used for the SPX levels.

Zone touches

#	Time (ET)	Zone	Zone line	Bar high	Bar low
1	10:05	LOWER	7,806.58	7,813.18	7,804.85

Snapshots

Time (ET)	Price	To upper EM	To lower EM	In range	Zone
15:55 (latest)	7,807.76	+31.48	+12.07	28%	MID
15:00	7,800.44	+38.80	+4.75	11%	LOWER
14:00	7,803.45	+35.79	+7.76	18%	LOWER
13:00	7,804.65	+34.59	+8.96	21%	LOWER
12:00	7,817.50	+21.74	+21.81	50%	MID
11:00	7,810.67	+28.57	+14.98	34%	MID
10:00	7,811.78	+27.46	+16.09	37%	MID
09:30	7,815.79	+23.45	+20.10	46%	MID

To upper EM = upper EM minus price (negative = trading above the band). To lower EM = price minus lower EM. Price = 5-minute bar close; time = bar start. H / L on the chart = RTH high / low. Grey dash-dot lines = EM range extended by 25% beyond each EM line. Shaded blue band = each bar's low-to-high range.